Recruitment Job Talk with Erin Hartman

DateDecember 11, 2014

Time12:00pm to 1:30pm

Location
4357 Bunche Hall

Contact
Contact Information
Belinda SunnuPhone bsunnu@polisci.ucla.edu

Presenter:Erin Hartman, UC BerkeleyTitle: “Call and Non-response: A Design Based Solution for Unit Non-response”Abstract:With the decrease in response rates to surveys, the potential for differential non-response to bias our estimates of public opinion is growing.  Changing response rates over the course of an election may be able to explain much of the variance observed in stated vote intention during the cycle. I decompose the potential bias into features that can be addressed in the design and post hoc adjustment stage, and unobservable behavioral bias that must be assumed away. I then consider a new sampling method, response rate sampling, that leverages past data on responsiveness to surveys to alleviate bias due to observable imbalance resulting from unit non-response.  This method was used for the internal analytics polling operation during President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign.  I will present findings on the dynamics of response rates over the 2012 election cycle, and how response rate sampling impacts volatility in our measurements and our estimates of public opinion and campaign effects.

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