The best political ads of the 2016 campaign

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That allowed another political scientist, Lynn Vavreck of UCLA, to treat the situation as an experiment: What happened in states where Clinton ran television ads but Trump didn’t?

Not too surprisingly, Clinton’s poll numbers rose in those states by an average of 2.6%, Vavreck found. The states she studied included Arizona, where the shift was big enough to enable Clinton to try to win a traditional GOP stronghold.