How Clinton vs. Trump Could Play Out

In the past, political scientists and economists have used economic growth models to predict presidential election results. The overall record of this methodology has been fairly good. The book jacket blurb of a 2009 volume by UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck epitomized this confidence:

“The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections,” it proclaimed, “that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start.”