The Runner-up Effect

DateMay 23, 2014

Time7:00am to 8:30am

Location
4357 Bunche Hall

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Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in samples of Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second placed candidates are substantially more likely than close third finishers to run and win subsequent elections. This identifies the effect of being labeled the runner-up, since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance. We explore the potential mechanisms for this runner-up effect, including selection into candidacy, heuristic behavior by political actors, and the runner-up benefiting from strategic coordination. Selection into candidacy appears unlikely to explain the runner-up effect on winning, and the weight of the evidence suggests that the effect is driven by strategic coordination.

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