Jessica Stanton, University of Pennsylvania

DateJanuary 12, 2017

Time12:30pm to 2:00pm

Location
4357 Bunche Hall 

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Abstract:Do rebel group violations of international humanitarian law during civil war – in particular, attacks on noncombatant civilians – affect conflict outcomes?  I argue that in the post-Cold War era, rebel groups who do not target civilians have been able to use the framework of international human rights and humanitarian law to appeal for diplomatic support from Western governments and intergovernmental organizations.  However, rebel group appeals for international diplomatic support are most likely to be effective when the rebel group can contrast its own respect for civilian immunity with the government’s abuses.  Rebel groups that do not target civilians in the face of government abuses, therefore, are likely to be able to translate increased international diplomatic support into more favorable conflict outcomes. Using original cross-national data on rebel group violence against civilians in all civil wars from 1989 to 2010, the findings show that rebel groups that exercise restraint toward civilians in the face of government violence are more likely to secure favorable conflict outcomes.  In addition, I probe the causal mechanism linking rebel group behavior to conflict outcomes, showing that when a rebel group behaves well in comparison to its government opponent, Western governments and intergovernmental organizations are more likely to take coercive diplomatic action against the government.  The evidence suggests that rebel groups can translate this increased diplomatic support into favorable conflict outcomes.Full paper can be found here 

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